Nate Diaz -260 vs. Melvin Guillard +200
The main event of the show is between two fighters who became known from the Ultimate Fighter show. Nate Diaz the winner of Ultimate fighter season 5 is coming off back to back losses. Diaz main strength is on the ground and has won four fights in the UFC by submission. Guillard never impressed me that much; he always came off as the cocky young fighter with a lot of ability but was not skilled enough to back it all up. Guillard is on a two fight win streak and win in this fight would be huge for his career.
Prediction: Diaz will use his long reach advantage while standing and when the fight goes to the ground Guillard will not last too long before Diaz finishes the fight by submission.
Roger Huerta +250 vs. Gray Maynard -350
The line should be a little closer in this fight because it is going to be a war. Huerta hasn’t fought since August 2008 so it makes me wonder if he has a lot of ring rust. Huerta has also been pursuing a career in acting lately and this is his last fight on his UFC contract. Maynard has won his last five fights in the octagon with big wins over Frank Edgar and Jim Miller. Maynard is a three time All-American wrestler from Michigan State with incredible conditioning. What impressed me about Maynard in his last fight was his improved striking, he seemed very quick on his feet.
Prediction: Huerta has a big heart and you can never count him out of a fight but I think Maynard will control the fight with his improved stand up and great wrestling to win the fight by decision.
Carlos Condit -400 vs. Jake Ellenberger +300
Jake Ellenberger is taking this fight on short notice and even though he is a very skilled wrestler he is going to have his hands full in this fight. Condit the former WEC champ, is coming off a split decision loss to Martin Kampmann and is looking to show that he is one of the top welterweights in the UFC. Condit has great muay thai, solid BJJ and now trains at Arizona Combat Sports
Prediction: Ellenberger’s only shot in this fight is to use his wrestling to grind out a decision win but that won’t be easily considering Condit trains with All-American caliber every day. Condit will finish this fight no matter where it goes. Condit will get the win but it may be harder than expected.
Tim Credeur +220 vs. Nate Quarry -300
This fight was very hard for me to pick, both fighters have looked impressive lately but that doesn’t make me forget some of their rocky performances from the past. Credeur is from season seven of the Ultimate Fighter, on the show he proved that he is a very high level black belt in BJJ but has just average wrestling and stand up. Quarry is from season one of the Ultimate Fighter and years ago before his back surgery he had his shot at the middleweight title. Quarry has good takedown defense with very heavy hands. Quarry in his last fight looked very impressive by beating Jason Mcdonald and showed that he has very good submission defense.
Prediction: If this fight ends by TKO I give it to Quarry and if the fight ends by submission I give the edge to Credeur. On that note I feel that Quarry will be able to control the fight and gain top position to win a very close decision.
Parlay of the night: Gray Maynard -350, Nate Diaz -260 and Carlos Condit -400.