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Sunday, December 13, 2009

5 for 5 on UFC 107 Picks (Penn vs. Sanchez)

Congratulations to all of you who purchased our last picks for UFC 107 where our star UFC Predictor nailed every fight and went 5-5 on all the outcomes of the fights. The only thing we didn't nail 100% was the way the fight was won.
Below is the write-up and descriptions on the predictions and fights from the most recent MMA fight that we predicted.
UFC 107 Penn vs Sanchez predictions:

BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez

This match’s deciding factor will be BJ Penn’s cardio. With the exception of his previous fight against Kenny Florian, his cardio has withered within the first three rounds. This is his only problem against Sanchez, who is a cardio machine. As far is everything else is concerned, Penn is slightly better than Sanchez at everything. Better striking, heavier hands, and better jiu-jitsu. Sanchez’s keys to victory are to try and push BJ against the fence, and much like St.Pierre did, allow the blood to flow into his shoulders, taking away his jab. After three rounds of doing this, Sanchez can outbox Penn and earn the victory. Penn’s keys to victory are to make sure his cardio is up to par, and to circle around the uber-aggressive Sanchez, outboxing him. If it goes to the ground, Penn can take Sanchez’s back and sink in his nasty rear naked choke. I think Penn will be up to par as cardio is concerned, and will be able to outwork and outsmart Sanchez. Look for Penn to take the Unanimous Decision.

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo

Although the odds for this fight have yet to be posted, it would make sense for Mir to be the favorite. This would make sense if Mir were consistent. A master strategist, his ego often gets in the way of his should have been-could have been victories. If the Frank Mir that beat Nog comes in against Kongo, he will find a way to get Kongo to the ground and use his top notch jiu-jitsu to submit him. The problem with this is that Mir isn’t a wrestler, and usually changes levels and lets his opponent fall on top of him. Kongo, having the superior standup and virtually no ground game, will not fall into this trap. Kongo is also the bigger man, and can use his reach to wreck havoc on Mir’s face. Mir would need to find a way to take down Kongo to win this fight, and Frank Mir is not quick or explosive enough to take down Kongo. Kongo will need to use his reach and standup to throw combos at a distance, and wear out Mir, as Mir’s cardio is below par. As the fight goes to the beginning of the third round Mir will be too tired and slippery to employ his jiu-jitsu. Kongo will then be able to pepper Mir and take him down without worry of being submitted. The thing to remember here is that Mir wins the fights he isn’t supposed to win, and loses the fights that he is. Mir should win here, and is supposed to win, but this decision is based on a pattern, and the knowledge that at least one fight during the night will be an upset. Mir will take the fight by tko in the beginning by the second round.

Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida

One thing we all know about this bout will that it will be entertaining. My guess is that it will get fight of the night. Both of these fighters are super-aggressive, and know how to play to their strengths. Guida’s strength is undoubtedly his aggression, his cardio, and his wrestling. Guida, in order in win this bout, will need to quickly push Florian against the fence and wear on him. In the late second and third round he will need to take down the potentially weathered Florian and smother him. Florian’s strengths are his diverse and unpredictable movements, accurate striking, and superior guard work. Florian needs to confuse Guida on the feet and peck away, much like in his fight with Roger Huerta. This fight has decision written all over it, unless of course Florian has the same fire that we saw in his fight with Joe Stevenson. Look for Florian to earn a 29-28 unanimous decision.

on Fitch vs Mike Pierce

Why Jon Fitch keeps fighting mid tier fighters when he is clearly a top contender is really quite simple. The only other people left for him to fight in the division are currently in his same training camp. In the future, possible bouts with Anthony Johnson, Paul Daley, and perhaps Martin Kampmann loom, but for now, Mike Pierce will get the Jon Fitch treatment. For anyone betting, this is the easy money pick of the night. Fitch always wins (except against people named GSP), and always wins by decision. This will be no different. Fitch by unanimous decision.

Paul Buentello vs Stefan Struve

After a long hiatus from the UFC, Buentello returns to fight the relatively new up and comer Stefan Struve. This, much like the Mir vs Kongo fight, is a matchup of contrasting styles. Buentello’s striking squares off against Struve’s submissions. Buentello has only lost one fight in the UFC, and that was to then-champion Andrei Arlovski. Times have changed since then, and so has the skill level of the UFC’s stock. This is an either or pick but Buentello’s UFC rust, not to mention lack of reach puts the odds slightly in Struve’s favor. Logic states that you can pick either. I am choosing Struve by triangle in the second round.

Catch all of our next UFC fight Predictions for the next fight UFC 108: Evans vs. Silva live from Las Vegas on January 2nd 2010.


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